Hacking Phil Steele: TO Margin + SOS

Phil Steele (right, supporting the Bulldogs) is the dean (dare I say czar) of college football insight and I have anxiously awaited his new yearbooks for years. As I have had time to digest the byzantine complexity and voluminous information contained in his 2008 College Football Preview, I now have a couple tricks up my sleeve on how to unleash some additional value from all his statistical work.

(You might think I have been on vacation, but I have spent the last two months redesigning Fantasy College Blitz and its accompanying forum at Ning. NEVER could have been done with out the help of Derrick Eckhardt and Randy Burgess - much love out to them. Now back to the games…)

First study on my mind was to combine his contrarian turnover margin work (teams better than +10 turnover margin do worse the next year 65% of the time, with teams worse than -10 do better 68% of the time) with his projected strength of schedule (SOS)- a few teams are blessed with the best (or worst) of both worlds.

By adding up the national rank for TO margin (big number good for a turnaround) and the SOS (big number good) you can see where every team stands.

STOCK UP!

Army and Kent State get knighted on both shoulders - the Black Knights were -10 TO margin last year and get the 116th hardest (5th easiest) schedule, while the Golden Flashes can call UNO! by coughing up -11 in 2007 and facing the 111th schedule (10th easiest). Rumors state that Army returns to the wishbone which will cause all kinds of nightmares for opponents, and Kent gets a healthy QB Julian Edelman back at full-strength with the nation’s leading returning rusher Eugene Jarvis.

But what about STOCK DOWN?

Again, two teams will swim against a riptide in LSU and Cincinnati as the reside on the wrnog side of both calculations. The Tigers and Coach Mad Hatter grabbed the National Title by grabbing 20 more turnovers more than their opponents and face the 19th hardest schedule, while the great Bearcat story of 2007 looks to hit a roadblock as they were +16 and now get a vicious non-conference schedule setting them up for a fall.

Some other teams were very close to getting the double on the good way (stock outperform?) New Mexico State and North Texas have SOS in the 90s, and the team we should all root for, Northern Illinois, fits the bill the same way as the campus tries to unite after the Valentine’s Day shooting tragedy.

Check out the whole study on my Google Spreadsheet (I can NEVER get the damn iframe to embed!)

Insanely funny or profanely inappropriate?

So I finally got on the Twitter bandwagon, I see why it has become so popular - that 140 character limit forces you think with brevity whereas most web writing is similar to listening to John McCain ramble incessantly.

It took me a little time to properly crop a picture of the Blue Turf for the background, but I call it a success.

Then I stumbled upon the Son of God…

some excerpts…

@juliaroy I have already forgiven you. Remember, there’s a difference between kneeling down and bending over.

Hello my children, I am going to go poop. I may or may not finish myself off on the toilet and flush potential Christ Jrs down the toilet.

@dobata no problem! I’ve got your back. And your front.

I am not known for being politically correct so I heartily laughed at the second clip. Who is joining me in hell for laughing at this cat?

Odds to win 2009 BCS Championship Game

Courtesy of .com, here are the favorite for the college football national title for the 2008-2009 season. Missouri and Kansas seem like strong early values, plus my love for Texas Tech in 2008 should be no surprise and they are 100-1!

BCS Plus One, see you in 2010

USA today reports on the upcoming college football conference commissioner meeting in Miami this week. It highlights the once-fractured landscape of the game evolving into a BCS coalition that is marketing the game on a national level.

Has the playoff noise settled down yet, or will it crescendo as summer turns to fall ad Buckeye fans await a third straight loss in the championship game (Jim Kelly and Daryl Talley are very proud of Ohio State’s accomplishments)?

Media Alert: Friday Radio Appearance

A friendly notice that Vince Mullins will appear Friday April 25 at 9am EDT on 1310AM KXAN Radio in Phoenix and on the web at The Positive Side of Sports.

Vince will discuss the NFL Draft with a focus on the Arizona teams both pro and collegiate. Listen or call in with questions, and check out host Ray Garibaldi and his star-studded staff like Charles Barkley and Dave Kreig.

NFL Draft preview with Brady Ackerman

Brady Ackerman is a Florida football institution - the former Gator RB has progressed through coaching to host talk radio around the state while settling in Orlando the last few years.

While he calls it a sports talk radio show, the diehard listeners to ESPN 1080 in Orlando Florida revel in a “football talk radio show” that talks pro, college and even Florida prep ball.

Ack sat down with me via email and brought his point of view to the Sunshine State pro teams and the rest of the talent in general.

Vince Mullins: Starting with your Florida focus, let us dig in to the Dolphins first - who is their first pick? Since they need so much help and should trade down, what teams may work a deal?

Ack: I think the Dolphins take Chris Long (right, Icon SMI) from Virginia. He will be a flex-type defensive end that can play in a 3-4 system…

(continued at Fantasy College Blitz)

2008 Chucky Mullins Courage Award

Safety Jamarca Sanford at the University of Mississippi is the latest recipient of the Chucky Mullins Courage Award.

Each season an Ole Miss Defensive Player earns this honor for roles not only with the team but also with the community. The ceremony impacted new Head Coach Houston Nutt…

“Our players are very excited that Jamarca received the award,” said new head football coach Houston Nutt. “Heart, attitude and toughness best describes why Jamarca is so deserving of this award. He’s a giver. From everything I heard tonight during the documentary about Chucky, I don’t think we could have picked a better person. The baton has been passed to Jamarca, and it’s an awesome honor and responsibility.”

The award, sponsored by Phi Beta Sigma fraternity, honors the late Chucky Mullins, who had his Ole Miss career come to an end during the 1989 Homecoming game against Vanderbilt when he was paralyzed after making a tackle. After returning to his studies at Ole Miss, Mullins passed away on May 6, 1991.

Thanks to Scout.com for the article.

NFL Draft: Best and worst NFL offenses in 2008

In preparing our NFL Draft coverage at Fantasy College Blitz I again looked at the current depth charts in the NFL for weaknesses and then to the stats to see what NFL teams needed immediate help moving the ball.

I knew that the San Francisco 49ers stunk (right, in own end zone, Icon SMI) up the joint last year, but this bad?

• 32nd in yards per play (4.36, tops was New England Patriots at 6.35),
• last in red zone possessions (only 29 - Jacksonville Jaguars had double and came in 3rd), and
• last with only 5.3 yards per passing attempt (get JAMES HARDY!!!!)

I thought I would share the spartan Google Spreadsheet with everyone - here is the link.