2008 Running Back NFL Draft Class Best ever?

With a flurry of stars declaring early for the NFL Draft only four of the Top 20 rushers return for the 2008 college football season. This could be the deepest RB crop in a decade.

The top returning rusher for the 2008 season will be junior Kent State RB Eugene Jarvis (5th, 1669 yards, 10 TD), followed by junior Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells (11-1609-15) (right, Icon SMI),  junior Southern Mississipi RB Damion Fletcher (13th-1586-15) and senior Javon Ringer of Michigan State (20th-1447-6). Of course this assumes that none of these declare by the tomorrow’s Tuesday January 15 deadline.

A quick roll call of the junior RB dashing for cash making the 2008 NFL Draft one of the strongest RB classes ever, and the heir apparents:

Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, Arkansas - Many have Run DMc as their top prospect, and Felix Jones is probably a first-day pick also. Razorbacks gutted by their departure plus the FB/HB hybrid senior Peyton Hillis. New head coach Bobby Petrino will be building from the ground up with WR Marcus Monk and two offensive linemen graduating. Drew pointed to there being a rebuilding year in his Cotton Bowl wrapup, but I have a gut feeling that RB Michael Smith and maybe even QB Casey Dick wll do fine under the Petrino system - at least for the two years Petrino will stay at Arkansas.

Kevin Smith, UCF - our National Player of the Year is a tough inside runner with just enough of a top gear to break off long runs. Sounds like Emmitt Smith but I have a hard time making that comparison despite Kevin breaking Emmitt’s career college rushing yards record. Given UCF personnel expect some JUCO work to be done by head coach George O’Leary.

Ray Rice, Rutgers - Rutgers force fed carries to Rice since the middle of his freshman year, so this is the right move for him since he is a run-up-the-middle type despite his size. When Rice got a breather we did see some flashes from junior to be Kordell Young behind a line with three seniors and wunder-freshman Anthony Davis.

Jonathan Stewart, Oregon - we have said it from Day One around here - Stewart will be a better pro than a college player similar to Brandon Jacobs now of the New York Giants. 6-foot and 235 pounds, Calista Flockhart like body fat and sub-4.5 forty times should propel him to early second-round material at worst. Jeremiah Johnson spelled Stewart well between nicks and breathers, and his

Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois - Mendenhall owns the multi-talented skill set that the NFL likes, but he may need to add ten to twenty pounds. Mendenhall leaves his brother Walter as the new starter if it is possible to project a Ron Zook lineup before spring practive - I am sure he has put extra effort into texting the top running recruits for the last week.

James Davis, Clemson - I have linked to the article that outlines his meager beginnings - coupled with the crowded backfield this is absolutely the right decision for him, especially if he is a first-day pick. That whooshing sound is CJ Spiller moving up our 2008 Draft Kit.

Steve Slaton, West Virginia - he had to go pro, I will not deny him that. We at FCB have consistently marveled at Slaton’s speed as well as his penchant to disappear in big games. We revelled in his 200-yard and three-TD performances, but moreso were disappointed by his ten carrie and fifty yard yawners. I am not sure whether to blame his fire, his injury-prone nature or simply the offensive QB-read option that allowed Pat White to often look like the better runner. Slaton will have tremendous measurables but I fear will fall short in the NFL.

Oh, did I mention that this mass exodus may make Noel Devine worthy of the #1 RB slot in 2008?

Capital One Bowl Review:Carr goes out a winner

by Drew Smith of Fantasy College Blitz

The Capital One Bowl matched up two of college football’s elite programs as the Wolverines traveled to the Sunshine State to face the Gators, one of the more interesting games in this bowl season. Not only was the game itself fun as we saw the Wolverines outlast the Gators 41-35 but we also got to see the end of Big Blue football as we know it as we will be seeing a whole new style as Rich Rodriguez is going to bring the spread option to Ann Arbor.

This bowl game represents the last of the Lloyd Carr era and the last of the Wolverines offense of the last few years as QB Chad Henne, RB Mike Hart, WR Mario Manningham and WR Adrian Arrington will all try to make it at the next level. On the other side of the ball we got to see an offense that has clearly become just the QB Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin show where every play we get to see how creative Urban Meyer can be to get the ball into their hands.

Fantasy Impact:

Aaron Kelly is dead to me…

I have no particular allegiance to Clemson - I spent a year growing up in Hilton Head Island, SC but had no interest in agricultural science nor the Tigers.

But I know two groups of people today that would like the memory of Clemson’s Aaron Kelly’s dropped pass to be erased from memory…the should-have-been-the-game-winner against Boston College (picture, BART BOATWRIGHT/Greenville Online Staff)…

1) Clemson fans who just missed out at the ACC Championship.

2) ME, WHO BY VIRTUE OF THIS DROPPED TD MISSED OUT ON TEN FANTASY POINTS AND HENCE THE FANTASY CHAMPIONSHIP!  Not to mention I had subbed in Mississippi State RB Anthony Dixon for Cincy WR Marcuss Barnett late Friday and missed his 10-195T2 performance which would have made this drop moot.

Anyway, no fantasy college football trophies for me this year and Kelly is still dead to me….

Fantasy Playoffs: What WRs to elect to office?

With Election day behind us and new mayors in many of the big cities, I thought I would force yet another non-football related metaphor upon you to obfuscate my inability to create something fresh.  

Vote for your Permastarters

Mike Crabtree and Danny Amendola at Texas- cooled off but you can’t sit him vs. Longhorn secondary
Jordy Nelson at Nebraska - from #37 pre-season to 2nd in receptions and yards.
James Hardy at Northwestern - most consistent TD-maker in the game.
Adarius Bowman vs Kansas- Pokes are a yardage machine, even against Jayhawks
Jason Rivers, Davone Bess, Ryan Grice-Mullin vs. Fresno - even thoug Fresno looks good against pass, it is because teams run on them all day. Regardless, do not expect the Warriors to suddenly go back to the Michael Carter days - they will be throwing long after you have gone too bed.
Emmanuel Sanders, SMU vs. Jarrett Dillard, Rice - might be the two plays of the week with two Bottom 20 defenses! Dillard is 3rd in nation in Red Zone  TD catches with 7
Brandon Gibson vs. Stanford - Cardinal (BI #77), and with Dwight Tardy out for the season the Cougars could throw more. Same story says TE Jed Collins could get goal-line carries, so be aware of that when setting your lineups.
Percy Harvin at South Carolina - sure the Gamecocks have our 26th rank D but with Superman Tebow still protecting his sore right shoulder much more of the offense will fall on the Harvin shoulders.

RECOUNT!!!! Stars idle this week.

Dante Love, Ball State - just when you needed him most.
Stephen Williams, Toledo - sucks because Rocket offense put up more than a mile of offense in the last three games (1885 vs 1760 yds).

also, Michael Thomas - Arizona, Mike Wallace - Ole Miss, Jaison Williams - Oregon, Marko Mitchell - Nevada

With 98% of precincts reporting, we project these winners…

Casey Fitzgerald vs Navy - Navy is last in the nation allowing almost nine yards per pass attempt. Mean Green may throw it 70 times in this one .

Jeremy Childs at Utah State - Get busy Childs! Expect him to get to the EZ against 112th ranked D. Childs rises against bad competition (probably not what Coach Peterson wants to here, but it is true)

DJ Hall Alabama at Mississippi St. - the Bulldog offense puts their excellent defense in bad spots, and I would expect that to continue with a good Bama offense. Expect multiple short TDs for Hall as they rebound from the heartbreak loss to LSU.

No scandals, but stock is dropping

Jeff Moturi, UTEP - Fred Rouse sighting last week in the usual late-season UTEP collapse may force Moturi down the depth chart.

Harry Douglas at W(F)VU - Moutaineer defense cracks the Blitz Index Top Ten this week, only allowing 14ppg and 4.2 ypp. Vegas is predicting a 40-24 win for the Mountaineers, but Douglass finally seems healthy after his mystery ailment. I would look for a better option but you could do much worse than start Douggie. Now if only the defense could get over their allergies to sound coverage…

Arrelius “Rejus” Benn, Illinois at Ohio State - Top defense in the land plus the offense has become much more run-based. Might be a great keeper for next year, but will be a great sit for this week.

Sleepers

Dezmon Briscoe, (FR) Kansas - 25-322T7 - one hell of a TD to opportunity ratio, slanted a bit by the 3 TD against the Cornhuskers last week. Oklahoma State can be thrown on so if you need a fill-in for your playoffs this could be the guy.

Jeron Harvey, Houston - at Tulsa where points will be as plentiful as embarrassing Lindsay Lohan pictures. Harvey has four catches in every game this year and TDs in three of the last four.

BlitzIndex Defense Rankings for Week Ten

Sharing Fantasy College Blitz exclusive defense rankings for college football here. Originally designed for the fantasy player to better identify solid matchups, I have received notes from many other types of users:

• analysts and bloggers for a handy reference.
• “sports investors”
• average college football fans

Posted here are links to the Google Doc and an attempt to embed the spreadsheet into the page..

Week Nine Top Performers

PASSING

1. Willie Tuitama, Arizona vs. Washington - 51att, 510 yards, T5
2. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech vs. Colorado - 62-431T3
3. Colt Brennan, Hawaii vs. NM State - 46-425T6
4. Aaron Opelt, Toledo vs. N. Illinois - 28-387T4
5. Dan LeFevour, C. Michigan vs. Kent St - 43-359T3
6. Martin Hankins, Memphis vs. Tulane - 38-355T2
7. Daniel Evans, NC State vs. Virginia - 46-347T3
8. Drew Weatherford, Florida State vs. Duke - 47-339T1
9. Jake Locker, Washington vs. Arizona - 30-336T2
10. Paul Smith, Tulsa vs. SMU - 45-336T3
11. Giorgio Moran, Kent St vs. C. Michigan - 28-247T3

RUSHING

1. Jamaal Charles, Texas vs. Nebraska - 33att, 290 yds, T3
2. Matt Forte, Tulane vs. Memphis - 44-278T2
3. Dwight Tardy, Wash. State vs. UCLA - 37-214T2
4. Anthony Alridge, Houston vs. UTEP - 27-204T0
5. Kalvin McRae, Ohio vs. Bowling Green - 42-200T3
6. Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois vs. Ball State - 28-189T2
7. Knowshon Moreno, Georgia vs. Florida - 33-188T3
8. Brandon McAnderson, Kansas vs. Texas A&M - 21-183T2
9.Kevin Smith, UCF at S. Miss - 42-175T2
9a. Albert Young, Iowa vs. Michigan State - 34-179T2
10. Marcus Thomas, UTEP vs. Houston - 28-178T0
11. Jeremy Avery, Boise State vs. Fresno - 18-124T3

RECEIVING

1. Ryan Grice-Mullen, Hawaii vs. NM State - 13 rec,195 yds, 3TD
2. Nick Moore, Toledo vs. N Illinois - 7-145T3
3. Mike Thomas, Arizona vs. Washington - 10-165T3
4. Davone Bess, Hawaii vs. NM State - 7-112T2
5. Donald Bowens, NC State vs. Virginia - 11-202T2
6. Steve Johnson, Kentucky vs. Miss. State - 3-69T2
7. Jeff Moturi, UTEP vs. Houston - 4-94T2
8. Nate Swift, Nebraska vs. Texas - 6-112T 2
9. Thomas White, Baylor vs. Kansas State 4-118T2
10. Bryan Anderson, C. Michigan vs. Kent St - 10-142T1
11. Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech vs. Colorado - 12-131T1
12. Kenny McKinley, S. Carolina vs. Tennessee - 14-151T1

College Football Offensive Dynasties

In preparation for the fantasy college football season, I wanted to find patterns in the NCAA stats going back to 200o. I was looking for who had the best track record of producing the most yards, the most big plays, and the most points so I could dominate my leagues and perhaps get my more quantitatively-enhanced readers a chance to really make something of these numbers.

On this Google Doc, are the results of the study so far. Please feel free to download the data and massage it at will - just please share what you learned.

Using basic skills in spreadsheets, I took each individual year’s stats and ranked them in order

• Yards per game - for the true production of the offense
• Yard per play - for the big-play ability of the offense
• TDs per game - since I wasn’t concerned about pesky field goals for fantasy, I used this number rather than points per game. There is an element here of a good defense serving up a short field for the offense to punch it in, but stay tuned for how I think that effect works its way out.

Those three variables were equal weighted to produce the Program, or “PGM”, score - the lower the better since the top rank of one in each category would produce a score of 3. The best way (and most timely way) to find out who had the best offensive program was to take a three-year average of each PGM score to then determine what school currently has the best track record for offensive production. You can find that score on the “04-06″ tab.

The results were not too surprising:

1. Louisville - Brian Brohm (right, ICON SMI) the triggerman
2. Texas Tech
3. Texas
4. Hawaii
5. California
6. Southern California
7. Boise St.
8. Minnesota
9. West Virginia
10. Texas A&M

Minnesota and Texas A&M caught me off guard but I realized that they have a great tradition of running backs this decade.

It would be awesome if one of my erudite readers could find a different way to approach this - some thoughts I had for additional fields…

• Head Coach (think Hal Mumme)
• Offensive Coordinator (since they take schemes with them, like Gary Crowton)
• Grass or turf home fields (Do turf teams score more?)
• Returning QB (gotta be a positive effect, yes? Unless you are Reggie Ball)
• Returning Seniors (Experience counts?)
• Returning starters on offensive line (Is the war really won in the trenches?)

You get the idea. And this project is probably best utilized in some relational database to see if it has any predictive value. I don’t have the technical wizardry - I am more of an idea man. Consider it open source, and the stats are from the NCAA homepage.

Feed me college football - RSS style!

Over the course of the summer I have spent much more time getting Fantasy College Blitz up to snuff to the detriment of this blog. I look forward to getting back to the blogging very soon as the back office stuff at FCB is winding up and I can focus more on content.

This post is to get you up to date with all the RSS links that deal with this site and FCB:

• On College Football feed

• Fantasy College Blitz RSS feed - brand new!

• Fantasy College Blitz Podcast feed

Your bookmarks and subscriptions are most welcome!