theSpread.com BCS Championship Preview

My friends at theSpread.com just published their preview of the Ohio State Buckeyes (+4 and +155 if you are curious) versus the LSU Tigers. Please enjoy and check out their site.

Last year, there was little doubt Ohio State belonged in the BCS title game - even after the Buckeyes were stunningly routed by Florida, the team whose selection was hotly debated leading up to the contest. Ohio State is back in the championship game this season, and the Buckeyes hardly care that some feel they’re only making the repeat trip due to luck.

OSU

Hungry to avenge last season’s lopsided loss, No. 1 Ohio State (11-1) takes on second-ranked LSU (11-2) on Jan. 7 at the Louisiana Superdome, a championship matchup fitting in a season of stunning upsets and the lack of a clearly dominant team.

Oddsmakers from Bodog have made LSU -4 point spread favorites (View College Football odds) for the BCS Championship Game (Game Matchup).

There are only two undefeated teams…

against the spread, that is.

I like to use Vegas odds and results to illustrate “market expectations” for college football teams. Similar to a stock technical analyst, the performance of a team ATS and even over/unders tells me what people are doing with their money rather than what pundits are saying. Thanks to theSpread.com for the data.

So, the only two undefeated teams ATS are 6-0 Kansas and Missouri, and I interpret that to mean they have surprised those who earn their livings analyzing college football. Think about it, if it were a perfectly efficient market, everyone would be 3-3 ATS.

Oregon and UConn are the only teams with one loss ATS. Kansas and Connecticut have shocked everyone with their success both coming out of nowhere to be atop their respective conferences, but I think most of us saw the opportunities for the Tigers and the Ducks to perform well.

You may ask who the most disappointing teams are to the market? Here are all the 6-loss teams:

Team G W/L % ATS %

SYRACUSE 8 2-6 25.0% 2-6-0 25.00%

SMU 7 1-6 14.3% 1-6-0 14.29%

W MICHIGAN 8 3-5 37.5% 1-6-0 14.29%

NEBRASKA 8 4-4 50.0% 1-7-0 12.50%

I believe in an axiom that sounds like one of Newton’s Laws of Physics - these teams will likely continue in the same direction until some force acts upon it. I watched both Missouri and Kansas play yesterday, and neither should lose a game (straight up) nor ATS until they meet on November 24. Likewise, with horrible defenses and poor QB play (except for Justin Willis at SMU) of “Poor Four” listed above should continue.

Make use of that info however you see fit, as long as you realize I typed it for entertainment purposes only.

;-)

On the Lines: College Football Picks for the weekend…

Mississippi State +7 hosts Tennessee

The Volunteer defense ranks 109th in my ratings, and the Bulldogs have some impressive results this year. Despite playing with a far-below average quarterback position, Sylvester Croom has a tremendous defense and one of the best young RBs in the nation in Anthony Dixon. Look under the hood and even Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings see a potential Top Ten team in Starkville (see ELO-CHESS description and ranking in red).

I have seen +240 and +250 straight up, and that is really enticing, especially if you play both the moneyline and take the points.

See the rest of my picks over at my new site with Lance Manley at Blue Horseshoe Loves…

NCAA probing Toledo

and we all know how painful that can be…

USA Today reports that despite federal authorities dismissing charges against (former?) Toledo Rocket RB Harvey “Scooter” McDougle the school has declared him academically ineligible in the wake of an NCAA probe.

I have been snickering at this story for about a month now when it first surfaced. I am one who is known to put a little action down on any given Saturday, so I think I know a little about the biz. I gotta ask who is getting a big payday betting on any game in the MAC?

I also cannot help but wonder if athletes were to get a stipend would we hear anything about point-shaving? And why isn’t Barry Bonds under the same scrutiny as Scooter? Is it the name?

Great quote from Grandma McDougle in todays article….

“How can a student who has taken summer classes since being on your campus be academically ineligible for anything? You used the ‘academically ineligible’ trick on Scooter the very first year he came to your school. Now you are playing that same card once more.”

Ah, the old academically ineligible trick…same storied and tradition-laden trick used with Dexter Manley, no doubt…

2008 BCS Champions Odds

courtesy of Sportsbook.com (comments are mine, please share yours below)…

USC 5-2

Michigan 9-1

Florida 9-1

LSU 10-1

Texas 10-1

West Virginia 10-1

Louisville 20-1

Penn St 25-1

Oklahoma 25-1 (if they get the QB situation settled, look out)

Ohio St 25-1 (seems low, but lost many stars to NFL)

Virginia Tech 30-1

Nebraska 30-1

Georgia 30-1

Arkansas 30-1

Wisconsin 30-1

Florida St 30-1 (I love how Booby has retooled the coaching staff with former players and Jimbo)

Tennessee 50-1

Rutgers 50-1

California 50-1

Miami FL 50-1

zx Field (Any Other Team) 50-1

Notre Dame 50-1

UCLA 60-1

Texas A&M 60-1

Auburn 60-1

Clemson 75-1

Alabama 75-1

Iowa 75-1

South Carolina 75-1

Colorado 100-1

BYU 100-1

TCU 100-1

Arizona St 100-1

Boise St 100-1

Boston College 100-1

Missouri 100-1

Texas Tech 100-1

Oregon 100-1

Arizona 150-1

Wake Forest 150-1

Maryland 150-1

North Carolina St 200-1

Georgia Tech 200-1 (No CJ, but no Reggie Ball either)

Hawaii 200-1 (BrennanForHeisman.com coming soon)

Oklahoma St 200-1 (I have a sneaky suspicion this is worth a five-spot with only Texas and Missouri returning a lot of players)

Oregon St 200-1

Kansas St 200-1

Pittsburgh 200-1

South Florida 300-1

Purdue 300-1