Vince and Mick’s Picks for Week 7

Posted: October 15, 2010 in college football, OCF Original, Vince Mullins
Tags: , ,

Long time no talk…hope you have stayed in touch with me over at FantasyCollegeBlitz.com.

Let us jump right in to the picks of the week, where Mick the Piker and I bounce ideas around all week, a mixture of quantitative analysis, pure technical trends, and a healthy dose of “contextual knowledge”. Most of our interesting bets exist outside the Top 25 where Mick’s historical context and my nationwide fantasy monitoring.

In order of confidence, our Top 5 selections:

1) UNC -6.5 over Virginia

Mick’s computer loves UNC by 18!.  Mick can’t see any logical reason to disagree.  Sure, there’s the “UNC is distracted” argument but that didn’t work in week one against LSU so I don’t see any reason to put much stake in that now.  UVA has been DREADFUL at times this season, but I think many still hang that Cavalier feathered hat on the close loss to USC – what does that look like now?2) North Texas +5.5 over FIU

This is Mick’s biggest home dog computer “mispricing” of nine points, and here is why I like Home Dogs – you can leverage up your bet playing the spread and the money line. Put two units ATS, then 1 unit on the +175 moneyline to win straight up. So you get paid big on the upset, paid well for the cover, and if NT doesn’t cover then you had no whiskey money anyway.

Mick remembers that FIU had some great “success” early with close losses to Rutgers (although how good is Rutgers really?) and Texas A&M.  Then, the wheels kinda came off with a 2-TD loss at Maryland (again, how good are the Turtles) and a blow out loss versus Pitt (I won’t say it again – ha!)  They did win last week v. Western Kentucky.

NT’s D has been pretty solid (87th on the BlitzIndex), and they haven’t really been blown out – aside from the Army loss which I wanna say was still like 10-0 through 3Q before the Knights go 2 TDs late.  At 1-5, they could be the “best 1-5 team” in the nation – lol!

3) Over 70 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech

These Big 12 teams combine 9-1 over this yr, combined avg PF is 89 pts. My #68 and #92 defenses respectively. Check out Phil Steele analysis as he expects a 47-40 final.

4) Buckeyes -4 at Wisconsin

pure trend here as OSU is 4-1 ATS (weak against Illini) and overvalued Badgers 1-5! plus I have believed the Badgers to be a fraud all season long so I will give a little more than a FG.

5) Maryland +15 at Clemson

Clemson 1-4 ATS and Maryland looked sneaky good to me in Week One. My 17th and 39th ranked defense and a 48 number – so such a low scoring game sounds like a great time to accept 2TD +. not a game to watch, please enjoy from a distance.

Finally, a shout out for a slepy game of the week for true fans to enjoy – Air Force at San Diego State. Two complete teams in all three phases, esp. Defense where both rank in my Top 25, CBS College Sports at 8pm on Saturday. No bet, just enjoy and keep an eye out for Aztec RB Ronnie Hillman.

Thanks to Phil Steele and TheSpread.com for data.

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