Posts Tagged ‘degenerate gambling’

Long time no talk…hope you have stayed in touch with me over at

Let us jump right in to the picks of the week, where Mick the Piker and I bounce ideas around all week, a mixture of quantitative analysis, pure technical trends, and a healthy dose of “contextual knowledge”. Most of our interesting bets exist outside the Top 25 where Mick’s historical context and my nationwide fantasy monitoring.

In order of confidence, our Top 5 selections:

1) UNC -6.5 over Virginia

Mick’s computer loves UNC by 18!.  Mick can’t see any logical reason to disagree.  Sure, there’s the “UNC is distracted” argument but that didn’t work in week one against LSU so I don’t see any reason to put much stake in that now.  UVA has been DREADFUL at times this season, but I think many still hang that Cavalier feathered hat on the close loss to USC – what does that look like now? (more…)


against the spread, that is.

I like to use Vegas odds and results to illustrate “market expectations” for college football teams. Similar to a stock technical analyst, the performance of a team ATS and even over/unders tells me what people are doing with their money rather than what pundits are saying. Thanks to for the data.Chase Daniel

So, the only two undefeated teams ATS are 6-0 Kansas and Missouri, and I interpret that to mean they have surprised those who earn their livings analyzing college football. Think about it, if it were a perfectly efficient market, everyone would be 3-3 ATS.

Oregon and UConn are the only teams with one loss ATS. Kansas and Connecticut have shocked everyone with their success both coming out of nowhere to be atop their respective conferences, but I think most of us saw the opportunities for the Tigers and the Ducks to perform well.

You may ask who the most disappointing teams are to the market? Here are all the 6-loss teams:

Team G W/L % ATS %

SYRACUSE 8 2-6 25.0% 2-6-0 25.00%

SMU 7 1-6 14.3% 1-6-0 14.29%

W MICHIGAN 8 3-5 37.5% 1-6-0 14.29%

NEBRASKA 8 4-4 50.0% 1-7-0 12.50%

I believe in an axiom that sounds like one of Newton’s Laws of Physics – these teams will likely continue in the same direction until some force acts upon it. I watched both Missouri and Kansas play yesterday, and neither should lose a game (straight up) nor ATS until they meet on November 24. Likewise, with horrible defenses and poor QB play (except for Justin Willis at SMU) of “Poor Four” listed above should continue.

Make use of that info however you see fit, as long as you realize I typed it for entertainment purposes only.